Disinformation and fog of war surround the latest iteration of Russia-Ukraine crisis, ongoing since 2014. A lot seems unclear to Western public. What exactly is going on? Why? What can happen? Here is a short, detailed and factual explainer.

• What is happening in the Russia / Ukraine region?

Right now we are observing a further development of the situation that started in 2014 when Russia used the internal instability in Ukraine (which the Kremlin itself had helped to brew by trying to subvert Ukraine’s rapprochement with the EU) and embarked on annexation of Crimea and hybrid invasion of the easternmost tip of the Ukrainian Donbas. As we have seen several times in previous years (most notably in spring 2021), Russia is amassing troops on Ukraine’s borders to create tension.

However, what appears unprecedented is the number of equipment and manpower accumulated as well as the diversity of directions at which this is happening. According to estimates, the forces amassed were already over 120,000 by late January and have furthermore grown to over 130,000 by mid-February. The accumulation continues. Apart from the conflict zone in Donbas, and the Crimea now turned into a fortress, the troops threaten vast new areas very far from the current frontline. The regions of Kharkiv (a key and symbolic industrial, educational and military outpost in the East of Ukraine, just 40 km away from Russia), Sumy and Chernihiv all have border with Russia and witness accumulation of troops in the neighbouring Russian regions. 

Moreover, a major difference compared with previous examples of such Russian behaviour is an active involvement of Belarus.